MINYAK NAK GI USD150.00?

PLAIN AND SIMPLE: 'There is a lot of speculation...I think the increase is due to fundamental issues. There is more oil being consumed and less oil being discovered.' - MR SALLEE, of World-GTL, on what is driving the price of oil up

Industry figures at the annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference also said prices could even escalate to US$180 to US$200 a barrel in the next four years.

'It will go to US$150 a barrel in the short term,' Dr Fereidun Fesharaki, the chairman of oil consultancy Facts Global Energy, said on the sidelines of the two-day conference.

'Fundamentally, it can go to US$180 to US$200 a barrel by 2012 and 2013,' he said, adding that while high prices had impacted on demand growth, new players had emerged.

'Demand in the United States and many key Asian countries has stopped growing,' he said in a conference paper. 'China, India and the Middle East countries have locked in a demand growth of some one million barrels per day.'

Dr Fereidun, the conference chairman, said price increases in the past two to three months 'are all due to huge inflows of speculative money'.

Crude oil costs rose in Asia yesterday despite a call by the world's leading producer, Saudi Arabia, for talks with consumer nations.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, gained 63 US cents to US$134.98 a barrel. The contract slid US$4.19 a barrel to close at US$134.35 on Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last Friday, the two benchmark crude oil futures contracts hit all-time highs of US$139.12 in New York and US$138.12 in London.

There is global pressure to cool prices, which are stoking inflation and fuelling unrest.

Even the experts, however, cannot agree on who is to blame for the spiralling prices.

Mr John Sallee, the managing director of clean energy firm World-

GTL, said a lack of major oil discoveries and shortage of refinery capacity were pushing oil prices up.

'There is a lot of speculation. It is an easy thing to blame. I think the increase in prices is due to fundamental issues. There is more oil being consumed and less oil being discovered,' he said.

Mr Sallee also said crude oil could hit US$150 a barrel in the next one or two months. 'In the long run, it will go higher.'

Mr Yutaka Kunigo, the Japan-based executive officer with Tokyo Gas, described the prevailing high crude oil prices as 'crazy'.

'It does not reflect the supply and demand situation. I think speculation by commodities traders is the main reason,' he said.

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